Well That Makes Sense – Page 4 – WTMS Well That Makes Sense

“Damn, there is so much great knowledge out there. Did you know that “BOOKS” are full of smart?? No, I mean like life changing, I-wish-I-knew-that-years-ago type stuff.

I know that I was waaaayyy late to the game figuring it out. And I know that a lot of you are too busy to read as much as you ‘should’. And that is why you need me.

I still remember how it started for me. It started in June of 2008. After 11 years …..Click to continue

What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 10/30/2025

Week In Review
October 30, 2025

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 10/30/2025 Federal Reserve Chair Powell just delivered a reality check that sent mortgage-backed securities tumbling this morning. The market's overwhelming confidence in a December rate cut got a cold splash of water yesterday, and we're seeing the hangover effects right now. UMBS pricing dropped another 4 basis points overnight as traders recalibrate their expectations. The Fed did cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, bringing the federal funds rate to a 3.75-4.00% range. However, Powell deliberately avoided signaling whether another cut would follow in December, even though markets were nearly 100% certain just days ago. This uncertainty is creating volatility that directly impacts your rate sheets today. Corporate Earnings Paint Mixed Picture Freddie Mac reported net income of $2.8 billion for Q3 2025, down 11% year-over-year due to credit reserve builds versus releases in the prior year. More encouraging was Redwood Trust's record $6.8 billion in cumulative loan production across their platforms. Their mortgage banking revenues hit the highest levels since Q3 2021, signaling strength in the non-agency space. Capital allocated to Redwood's mortgage banking operations jumped 84% since Q2 2024. This massive increase reflects growing investor appetite for non-QM and jumbo loan products. For originators, this suggests continued strong execution options for loans that don't fit agency boxes. Treasury Markets Reset Higher The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.088% this morning, up 13 basis points from yesterday's close. This move higher in benchmark rates explains why mortgage pricing is under pressure despite the Fed cut. When Treasury yields rise, mortgage rates typically follow within 24-48 hours. The Fed also announced it will end quantitative tightening on December 1st. Going forward, they'll reinvest maturing agency securities into Treasury bills rather than new MBS purchases. This policy shift removes a consistent buyer from the mortgage-backed securities market, potentially keeping upward pressure on mortgage rates. Today's Events - 9:55 AM: Fed Governor Bowman Speech - 1:15 PM: Fed Dallas President Logan Speech Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | MBS | Security | Price | Change | |----------|-------|---------| | 30YR UMBS 5.0 | 99.58 | -0.04 | | 30YR UMBS 5.5 | 101.09 | -0.01 | | 30YR GNMA 5.0 | 99.72 | -0.01 | | 15YR UMBS-15 5.0 | 101.08 | +0.04 | US Treasuries | Maturity | Yield | Change | |----------|-------|---------| | 10 YR | 4.088% | +0.016% | | 2 YR | 3.614% | +0.018% | | 30 YR | 4.632% | +0.009% | | 5 YR | 3.724% | +0.014% | Subscribe free at WellThatMakesSense.com to get this analysis in your inbox every morning.

What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 10/29/2025

Week In Review
October 29, 2025

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 10/29/2025 Mortgage rates hit their lowest levels in over a year, driving massive refinance activity ahead of this afternoon's Federal Reserve decision. The 30-year mortgage rate dropped to 6.30% according to MBA data, spurring a 111% annual jump in refinance demand. Total mortgage application volume surged 7.1% for the week, with both purchase and refinance applications climbing significantly. The Fed is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points at 2:00 PM ET today. While the rate cut is fully priced in by markets, Chair Powell's press conference could create volatility in either direction. Consumer confidence declined for the third straight month, reinforcing expectations for continued Fed easing through December. MBS prices opened modestly weaker this morning, with the 30-year UMBS 5.0 coupon down 4 basis points at 100.07. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 17 basis points to 3.993% as traders position for the Fed announcement. Despite the morning weakness, rates remain at their most attractive levels since late 2023. Fannie Mae reported its 31st consecutive quarterly profit this morning, posting $3.9 billion in net income. Housing data showed mixed signals with Case-Shiller home prices rising 1.6% annually versus 1.9% forecast, while the FHFA index beat expectations at 0.4% monthly growth. Locking vs Floating Current rates represent the lowest levels in over a year, but today's Fed decision could push them in either direction. Markets have fully priced in a 25-basis point cut, meaning any hawkish commentary from Powell could cause rates to rise quickly. For loans closing within 30 days, locking may be prudent given the uncertainty surrounding Fed guidance and economic data disruptions from the government shutdown. Today's Events - Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (Aug): 1.6% vs 1.9% forecast - FHFA Home Price Index m/m (Aug): 0.4% vs 0.1% forecast - Consumer Confidence (Oct): 94.6 vs 93.2 forecast - 2:00 PM: FOMC Rate Decision Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 100.07 | -0.04 | | 5.5 | 101.39 | -0.02 | | 6.0 | 102.49 | 0.02 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 100.06 | -0.01 | | 5.5 | 101.04 | 0.01 | | 6.0 | 101.88 | 0 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.5 | 100 | 0.01 | | 3 yr | 3.508 | 99.977 | 0.012 | | 5 yr | 3.621 | 100.018 | 0.013 | | 7 yr | 3.794 | 100.496 | 0.019 | | 10 yr | 3.993 | 102.099 | 0.017 | | 30 yr | 4.564 | 103.031 | 0.018 |

What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 10/29/2025

Money
October 29, 2025

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 10/29/2025 Mortgage rates hit their lowest level in over a year, sparking a dramatic surge in refinancing activity. The 30-year contract rate fell to 6.30% according to MBA data, triggering 111% more refinancing applications compared to the same week last year. Purchase applications also climbed 5% for the week. This sustained decline could finally wake up the dormant housing market that's been frozen by high rates. Markets opened modestly weaker overnight ahead of today's Fed decision. MBS securities dropped 1 tick while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 3.992%, up 1.6 basis points from yesterday's close. All eyes turn to the 2:00 PM Fed announcement and Powell's subsequent press conference. While a 25 basis point cut is guaranteed, traders will scrutinize every word for clues about December's meeting. Fannie Mae reported its 31st consecutive quarterly profit this morning, posting $3.9 billion in net income. The GSE's streak stands as a rare bright spot in residential lending, demonstrating remarkable consistency through multiple market cycles. Consumer confidence meanwhile fell for the third straight month, hitting its lowest level since April. Americans are growing increasingly pessimistic about employment prospects despite relatively stable current conditions. Home price data showed mixed signals with Case-Shiller coming in weaker than expected. The 20-city index gained only 1.6% year-over-year versus the 1.9% forecast, while on a monthly basis prices actually declined 0.6%. However, the FHFA Home Price Index surprised to the upside with 0.4% monthly growth. These divergent readings reflect regional variations and methodology differences between the indices. Locking vs Floating Current rates represent the best pricing borrowers have seen in over a year. With the Fed decision looming, traders remain cautious about which direction markets will move next. The rate cut is fully priced in, but accompanying statements and projections could push rates higher or lower. Consider locking deals closing within 30 days given the uncertainty surrounding Fed communications. Today's Events Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (Aug): 1.6% vs 1.9% forecast CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (Aug): -0.6% vs -0.3% previous FHFA Home Price Index m/m (Aug): 0.4% vs 0.1% forecast CB Consumer Confidence (Oct): 94.6 vs 93.2 forecast 14:00 FOMC Rate Decision Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 100.07 | -0.04 | | 5.5 | 101.39 | -0.02 | | 6.0 | 102.49 | 0.02 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 100.06 | -0.01 | | 5.5 | 101.04 | 0.01 | | 6.0 | 101.88 | 0 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.5 | 100 | 0.01 | | 3 yr | 3.508 | 99.977 | 0.012 | | 5 yr | 3.621 | 100.018 | 0.013 | | 7 yr | 3.794 | 100.496 | 0.019 | | 10 yr | 3.993 | 102.099 | 0.017 | | 30 yr | 4.564 | 103.031 | 0.018 |

What’s up in Mortgage Today (AM) – 10/22/2025

admin2025-10-22T08:34:14-07:00October 22nd, 2025|Week In Review|

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 10/22/2025 Bond markets are experiencing their first taste of weakness in days after an impressive rally run. UMBS securities opened modestly lower after yesterday's [...]

What’s up in Mortgage Today (PM) – 10/21/2025

admin2025-10-21T16:29:12-07:00October 21st, 2025|Week In Review|

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 10/21/2025 Bond markets delivered a strange combination of excitement and boredom today, with modest gains masking underlying uncertainty. UMBS securities posted small improvements while [...]

What’s up in Mortgage Today (AM) – 10/21/2025

admin2025-10-21T08:33:34-07:00October 21st, 2025|Week In Review|

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 10/21/2025 Bonds are experiencing a strange combination of excitement and boredom this morning, with markets showing measured optimism. The Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Business Activity [...]

What’s up in Mortgage Today (PM) – 10/06/2025

admin2025-10-06T16:17:34-07:00October 6th, 2025|0 Comments

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 10/06/2025** Treasury yields continued their upward trajectory today as the government shutdown stretched into its second week, with the 10-year yield climbing higher amid [...]

What’s up in Mortgage Today (AM) – 10/06/2025

admin2025-10-06T08:40:09-07:00October 6th, 2025|0 Comments

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 10/06/2025 Mortgage bond markets opened Monday under global pressure despite a quiet domestic economic calendar. The 30-year UMBS 5.0 coupon dropped 13 basis points [...]

What’s up in Mortgage Today (PM) – 10/03/2025

admin2025-10-03T15:59:11-07:00October 3rd, 2025|0 Comments

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 10/03/2025 Treasury yields climbed today despite weaker-than-expected U.S. services data, creating headwinds for mortgage-backed securities prices. The 10-year Treasury bond continues to show volatility [...]

What’s up in Mortgage Today (AM) – 10/03/2025

admin2025-10-03T08:46:07-07:00October 3rd, 2025|0 Comments

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 10/03/2025 Mortgage backed securities markets are showing mixed signals today as the government shutdown enters its third day. The 10-year Treasury yield has inched [...]

What’s up in Mortgage Today (PM) – 10/02/2025

admin2025-10-02T15:55:50-07:00October 2nd, 2025|0 Comments

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 10/02/2025 The mortgage-backed securities market showed mixed signals today as traders positioned ahead of key economic data releases later this week. UMBS 30-year securities [...]

What’s up in Mortgage Today (10/02/2025)

admin2025-10-02T08:39:01-07:00October 2nd, 2025|0 Comments

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (10/02/2025) Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) markets showed mixed dynamics today as investors remain cautious amidst ongoing economic uncertainties. UMBS securities experienced minor declines in price, influenced by [...]

What’s up in Mortgage Today (PM) – 10/01/2025

admin2025-10-01T15:55:40-07:00October 1st, 2025|0 Comments

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 10/01/2025** The mortgage-backed securities market experienced significant volatility today as MBS gained 5 ticks (.16) but pulled back from earlier highs, while the 10-year [...]

What’s up in Mortgage Today (10/01/2025)

admin2025-10-01T08:51:45-07:00October 1st, 2025|0 Comments

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (10/01/2025) Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) markets are showing cautious movement, with UMBS prices reflecting moderate pressure today. The UMBS 30-year securities saw a slight dip, signaling a [...]

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