Warren Buffett’s Company Just Dropped a Major Hint About the Housing Market — Here’s What It Means for You

The Oracle of Omaha’s real estate arm sees a turning point coming. Should you pay attention?

If Warren Buffett whispers, Wall Street listens. So when his company Berkshire Hathaway releases predictions about the housing market, it’s worth putting down your phone and paying attention.

Here’s the bottom line: Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices says 2026 could finally be the year buyers catch a break. After years of brutal conditions — sky-high prices, mortgage rates that doubled, and bidding wars that felt like The Hunger Games — the tide may finally be turning.

Let’s break down what’s happening, why it matters, and what Buffett’s playbook can teach us about navigating this crazy market.

The Housing Market Has Been a Nightmare (You Probably Know This)

If you’ve tried to buy a home in the last few years, you’ve experienced the pain firsthand. Here’s what went wrong:

The COVID boom went bust. During the pandemic, mortgage rates dropped below 3% — practically free money. Everyone rushed to buy homes, and prices shot up nearly $150,000 on average between 2019 and 2022.

Then inflation hit. When prices on everything from eggs to gas went haywire, the Federal Reserve cranked up interest rates to cool things down. That pushed mortgage rates from around 3% all the way toward 7%.

Sellers went into hiding. Why would someone give up their cozy 3% mortgage to buy a new home at 7%? Most homeowners just stayed put. That meant fewer homes for sale, which kept prices stubbornly high even as buyers disappeared.

The result? The slowest housing market in decades. A total gridlock.

What Berkshire Hathaway Sees Changing

Buffett’s real estate company has been tracking these trends closely, and they’re seeing some green shoots:

Buyers are gaining leverage. After years of sellers calling all the shots, the power balance is shifting. Homes are sitting on the market longer. Nearly a quarter of Zillow listings had price cuts earlier this year. Sellers are starting to negotiate.

The Fed is cutting rates. After several interest rate cuts in 2025, mortgage rates have dipped toward 6.3% — still painful, but better than 7%. The National Association of Realtors predicts rates will average around 6% in 2026.

More homes are hitting the market. Active listings hit their highest level since December 2019, and Realtor.com forecasts nearly 9% more inventory next year. That means more choices and less competition.

Affordability is slowly improving. Redfin calls 2026 the beginning of a “Great Housing Reset” — not a crash, but a slow normalization where incomes can finally start catching up with home prices.

Berkshire Hathaway put it this way: “Following the slowest spring-summer housing market in decades, market conditions are moving toward a more equitable balance between selling and buying a home.”

What Warren Buffett’s History Tells Us

Here’s where it gets interesting. Buffett doesn’t just run a real estate brokerage — he’s actually made some savvy real estate plays himself. And his approach offers lessons for anyone thinking about buying a home.

He buys when everyone else is scared. In 1986, Buffett bought a 400-acre farm in Nebraska from the FDIC after a bank failed. In 1993, he scooped up a retail property near NYU that was being dumped by the Resolution Trust Corporation after a real estate bubble popped. Both times, he bought distressed assets when other investors ran for the hills.

His famous advice? “Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.”

He focuses on cash flow, not price speculation. Buffett doesn’t try to predict whether prices will go up next year. Instead, he asks: Will this property generate solid income? He turned the farm over to his son and hired a property manager for the retail building. Both investments have paid off handsomely over decades.

In 2012, he even said single-family homes were “as attractive an investment as you can make” and that he’d buy “a couple hundred thousand” homes if he could manage them all.

He plays the long game. Buffett’s Nebraska farm has tripled its earnings over 30+ years. His NYC retail property now returns over 35% annually on his original investment. The key? Patience. He’s content to hold for decades while others panic over short-term price swings.

He doesn’t obsess over timing. One of his best quotes: “Nobody buys a farm based on whether they think it’s going to rain next year. They buy it because they think it’s a good investment over 10 or 20 years.”

So What Does This Mean for You?

If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the “perfect” time to buy, here’s what the data suggests:

2026 looks better than 2024 or 2025. More inventory, slightly lower rates, and a more balanced market should give buyers more breathing room. Experts predict home sales could jump 14% next year.

Don’t expect a crash. Almost no forecaster is predicting a dramatic price drop. Home values may rise 1-4% in 2026 — slowly, but still up. If you’re waiting for 2008-style bargains, you might be waiting a long time.

Consider the holiday season. Berkshire Hathaway points out that homes on the market during winter often have motivated sellers — think divorces, job transfers, or inherited properties. Less competition from other buyers could mean better deals.

Smaller homes are in. With prices still high, Berkshire predicts more buyers will embrace smaller, more affordable homes. The bonus? They tend to appreciate faster than McMansions.

Multigenerational living is trending. About 17% of homes purchased recently were for extended families. Pooling resources with parents or adult children isn’t just economical — it’s becoming normal.

The Big Takeaway

The housing market isn’t magically fixed. But after years of brutal conditions, there’s real evidence that 2026 could be a turning point for buyers.

Warren Buffett would probably tell you not to obsess over timing the market perfectly. Instead, focus on whether the home makes financial sense for your situation, whether you can hold it long-term, and whether you’re buying for the right reasons — not just chasing short-term gains.

As he put it: “Keep things simple and don’t swing for the fences. When promised quick profits, respond with a quick ‘no.'”

The housing market may finally be thawing. Whether you jump in now, next year, or later, the smartest play is the same one Buffett has used for decades: Think long-term, buy what you can afford, and don’t let fear make your decisions.

What do you think — is 2026 your year to buy? Drop a comment below.