WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (09/23/2025)

Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) experienced mixed movements today with UMBS 30-Year prices showing slight declines, while GNMA 30-Year securities demonstrated modest gains. The UMBS 30-Year prices dropped marginally, reflecting some selling pressure and cautious investor sentiment in the mortgage market. Meanwhile, GNMA securities, which benefit from government backing, saw incremental price improvements, indicating a continuing investor preference for the relative safety of these loans. This divergence highlights market uncertainty amid shifting economic cues and federal policy signals. In the broader bond market, the 10-Year Treasury yield edged up slightly to about 4.15%, compared to 4.14% the prior day, continuing to hover below the historic long-term average of 4.25%. The 10-Year Treasury’s small yield increase signals a subtle rise in borrowing costs, which typically weighs on mortgage rates, though the change is modest. Treasury yields remain a critical influence on MBS pricing as investors reassess risk premia in light of ongoing economic data and Federal Reserve commentary.

Mortgage originations are forecasted to slightly decrease, with total volume expected to near $1.71 trillion in 2024, down modestly from earlier projections of $1.73 trillion. This reflects the challenges posed by higher rates slowing refinance activity and new home purchases, amid tight housing affordability conditions. Lenders report tightened credit standards, though demand persists for well-qualified borrowers with sound credit profiles. The real estate market continues to grapple with elevated commercial property vacancy rates, particularly office space, which remains near record highs just under 14%. This trend underscores ongoing headwinds in commercial real estate and caution by investors in that sector. Residential real estate markets are experiencing slower sales activity compared to the boom during previous low-rate years, as higher financing costs temper buyer enthusiasm. E

xpert commentary from industry leaders emphasizes the importance of monitoring MBS price action daily, especially UMBS versus GNMA spreads, for insights on mortgage rate movements. The volatility in bond markets calls for close vigilance by originators and investors alike, as even small basis point shifts can affect consumer borrowing costs and mortgage product offerings. In summary, the mortgage market faces a delicate balance of modest bond yield increases, cautious investor behavior, and a slightly muted mortgage origination environment amid evolving economic signals. Mortgage-backed securities show nuanced price shifts reflective of these dynamics, with government-backed securities offering a slight haven.

Borrowers may expect incremental rate adjustments as the bond market digests economic data and Fed policy outlooks. Stay informed with daily updates on mortgage-backed securities, Treasury yields, and mortgage origination trends by subscribing for free. Get this vital market analysis delivered straight to your inbox every morning to help you make smart decisions in today’s mortgage landscape. —

Real-Time Pricing
UMBS 30-Year:
– 5.0: Price 99.47, Day Δ -0.07
– 5.5: Price 101.05, Day Δ -0.02
– 6.0: Price 102.30, Day Δ +0.03

GNMA 30-Year:
– 5.0: Price 99.72, Day Δ +0.14
– 5.5: Price 100.91, Day Δ +0.09
– 6.0: Price 101.79, Day Δ +0.03

Treasuries:
– 2-yr: Price 100.094, Yield 3.576
– 5-yr: Price 99.743, Yield 3.682
– 10-yr: Price 100.996, Yield 4.127