MBS up 16 bps on open. Stocks flat. Bonds rallied overnight due to a sharper rally in EU bonds. 10yr yields dropped to 3.743 before Retail Sales data and rallied slightly afterward. Pushback observed despite Retail Sales at 0.2 vs 0.5 f’cast. “Control group” (retail sales excluding autos/gas/building materials) at 0.6 vs 0.3 f’cast, with +0.2 revision to last month’s headline. EU bonds influenced the overnight session as a hawkish ECB member made dovish comments on rate hike/pause outlook. German Bunds rallied 10bps, US 10s managed 5bps. AM econ data created volatility, bonds encountered resistance at 3.75%. Sideways movement until Europe closed. Uneventful day aligns with sideways baseline between recent rally and upcoming Fed announcement. MBS up 5 bps. Stocks gained 32.19 points.

Since 2009, rent prices grew by 60% or more in San Jose (85%), Denver, Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, Nashville, and Austin (60%). Rent prices rise faster than incomes, forcing tenants to spend more of their wages on rent. Miami has the highest rent-to-income ratio (28.5%) among the 50 largest US cities, while Cincinnati has the lowest (15.5%). Rent-to-income ratio declined in Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Providence.

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