WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (PM) – 05/06/2026
Peace deal optimism drove bond markets higher today as oil prices collapsed on hopes for a U.S.-Iran agreement, creating tailwinds for MBS and Treasury yields. The 10-year yield fell 7.7 basis points to 4.348%, while UMBS 5.0 coupons rallied half a point as diplomatic progress overshadowed stronger-than-expected employment data. Markets remain vulnerable to war-related headlines, but traders are pricing in additional gains if an official deal is achieved.
MBA mortgage indices all declined meaningfully on May 1st, with purchase activity down to 171.1 from 177.7 previously and refinance demand sliding to 928.6 from 977.9. The broader Mortgage Market Index fell to 285.3 versus 298.5 last month, signaling persistent weakness in originations even as rates improved. These declining volumes suggest borrowers remain cautious despite today’s market bounce.
ADP employment data beat expectations with 109,000 jobs added in April, above the 99,000 forecast but a significant recovery from March’s 62,000. This stronger labor report normally would pressure bonds, yet the geopolitical peace narrative dominated today’s trading dynamics. Originators should watch how this employment strength evolves heading into Friday’s official jobs report, which could reverse some of today’s gains.
Two Harbors acquisition dynamics intensified as UWM’s Mat Ishbia made his case directly to shareholders with just 13 days before the vote. Ishbia acknowledged he no longer sees value in Two Harbors’ management but still views their servicer’s book and pristine mortgage portfolio as valuable strategic assets. His aggressive tone and criticism of the board’s process signals this deal battle is far from over, despite multiple bid rejections.
UWM’s first-quarter results delivered $44.9 billion in originations with a return to profitability, powered by strong refinance activity and broker channel momentum. The company’s AI investments appear to be gaining traction across technology systems designed to identify refinancing opportunities within existing borrower databases. UWM’s performance underscores an execution gap in the industry—not all firms are capturing available refi volume at the same pace.
**Locking vs Floating**
Peace deal rumors sparked a sharp overnight rally that pushed 10-year yields down 7.7 basis points by market close. While these gains are substantial, the move itself wasn’t driven by fundamental economic improvement but rather by geopolitical risk reduction and energy price relief. Risk-takers who had positioned for exactly this scenario benefited, but the bond market still has room for improvement if an official agreement is reached, suggesting additional upside remains if headlines continue improving.
**Today’s Events**
MBA Purchase Index (May 1): 171.1 versus 177.7 prior
MBA Refi Index (May 1): 928.6 versus 977.9 prior
Mortgage Market Index (May 1): 285.3 versus 298.5 prior
ADP Employment (April): 109,000 versus 99,000 forecast, 62,000 prior
**Bond Pricing**
**UMBS 30 yr**
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
**GNMA 30 yr**
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
**Treasuries**
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2yr | 3.86 | 100.028 | -0.083 |
| 3yr | 3.89 | 98.906 | -0.082 |
| 5yr | 3.996 | 99.458 | -0.085 |
| 7yr | 4.169 | 100.49 | -0.084 |
| 10yr | 4.347 | 98.216 | -0.078 |
| 30yr | 4.936 | 97.1 | -0.055 |
