Well That Makes Sense – Page 2 – WTMS Well That Makes Sense

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Mortgage Today (PM) - 01/29/26

Week In Review
January 29, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 01/29/2026 Bond markets ended little-changed today as Treasury yields held near recent levels despite minor economic data releases. The 10-year Treasury closed down 1.4 basis points at 4.228%, providing modest relief after yesterday's selling pressure. MBS securities remained roughly unchanged throughout the session, showing resilience against broader market volatility. Weekly jobless claims came in slightly above expectations at 209,000 versus the 205,000 forecast, though continuing claims fell to 1.827 million from the previous 1.849 million. The mixed labor data reflects ongoing uncertainty in employment trends as the economy navigates post-Fed decision dynamics. Markets showed minimal reaction to these figures, suggesting traders are focused on bigger-picture developments. A mysterious mini-sell-off occurred during morning hours with MBS dropping an eighth and 10-year yields rising over one basis point before leveling off. The afternoon session saw Treasuries recover to stronger levels with no clear catalyst for the earlier weakness. The 7-year Treasury auction at 1:09 PM generated no market reaction, indicating steady demand for government debt. UMBS securities showed slight weakness across coupons with the 5.0, 5.5, and 6.0 coupons all declining between 4-6 basis points. GNMA securities fared better with the 6.0 coupon actually gaining 18 basis points while lower coupons remained stable. This divergence highlights the complex dynamics in mortgage-backed securities pricing during periods of market consolidation. Locking vs Floating Mortgage rates face significant constraints on further declines given current market conditions. GSE MBS purchases provide some protection against Treasury sell-offs, but the lower limit of the mortgage rate range was established in early January. Meaningful rate improvements will require either substantial bond market selling to create entry points for buyers or legitimate deterioration in major economic indicators, with no significant data releases scheduled until February's first week. For originators, this environment suggests limited opportunities for rate improvements in the near term. Consider locking deals that can close within the next two weeks given the lack of catalysts for meaningful rate declines. Today's Events - Continued Claims (Jan 17): 1,827K vs 1860K forecast, 1849K previous - Jobless Claims (Jan 24): 209K vs 205K forecast, 200K previous Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 100.05 | -0.06 | | 5.5 | 101.43 | -0.04 | | 6.0 | 102.38 | -0.04 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 100.05 | 0 | | 5.5 | 101.11 | -0.01 | | 6.0 | 102.33 | 0.18 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.559 | 99.887 | -0.012 | | 3 yr | 3.629 | 99.637 | -0.013 | | 5 yr | 3.817 | 99.135 | -0.014 | | 7 yr | 3.981 | 98.598 | -0.05 | | 10 yr | 4.236 | 98.09 | -0.009 | | 30 yr | 4.855 | 96.386 | -0.006 | Subscribe free at WellThatMakesSense.com to get this in your inbox daily. Market Data

Mortgage Today (AM) - 01/29/26

Week In Review
January 29, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 01/29/2026 Fed Holds Steady as Housing Market Shows Stress Fractures The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% yesterday, marking the first pause since July as Chair Powell signaled the cutting cycle may be over. MBS and Treasury markets opened flat this morning, showing little reaction to the decision that removed language about employment downside risks from the Fed statement. Two dissenting members wanted a 25 basis point cut, but Powell made clear that significant labor market deterioration or inflation moving closer to 2% would be needed for future cuts. Homebuyer cancellations hit a record high in December, with 40,000 contracts cancelled representing 16.3% of all properties under contract according to Redfin. High housing costs and increased inventory have empowered buyers to walk away more easily, creating a challenging environment for originators. Atlanta and Bay Area markets saw the most cancellations as buyers exercise newfound negotiating power in a market where sellers outnumber buyers by record margins. Weekly jobless claims came in slightly higher than expected at 209K versus the 205K forecast, though continuing claims fell to 1.827 million. The labor market data shows mixed signals that align with a concerning disconnect between consumer confidence and actual unemployment rates. This breakdown in traditional economic correlations represents a post-pandemic phenomenon that economists struggle to explain. Amazon's announcement of 16,000 additional layoffs this week underscores broader economic concerns beyond surface-level metrics. Real disposable personal income showed virtually no growth over the past 12 months, with job growth at its lowest rate since 2010. These fundamentals suggest the mortgage origination environment may remain challenging despite stable Fed policy. Locking vs Floating Mortgage rates face limited downside potential given current market conditions, with the lower range established in early January. GSE MBS purchases provide some protection against Treasury sell-offs, but meaningful rate improvements require either significant bond market weakness to create buying opportunities or deterioration in major economic indicators. No significant data releases are scheduled until February's first week that could materially impact rate direction. Today's Events - Continued Claims (Jan)/17: 1,827K vs 1860K forecast, 1849K previous - Jobless Claims (Jan)/24: 209K vs 205K forecast, 200K previous Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 100.03 | -0.07 | | 5.5 | 101.45 | -0.02 | | 6.0 | 102.42 | 0 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.99 | -0.05 | | 5.5 | 101.11 | -0.02 | | 6.0 | 102.26 | 0.1 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.561 | 99.883 | -0.007 | | 3 yr | 3.63 | 99.635 | -0.01 | | 5 yr | 3.819 | 99.123 | -0.008 | | 7 yr | 4.026 | 98.331 | -0.002 | | 10 yr | 4.247 | 98.003 | 0.005 | | 30 yr | 4.872 | 96.128 | 0.016 | Market Data

Mortgage Today (AM) - 01/28/26

Week In Review
January 28, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 01/28/2026 Bond markets are stuck in neutral this morning as traders await Fed guidance later this week. MBS prices show minimal movement with UMBS 5.5 coupons unchanged at 101.41 and 6.0 coupons gaining just 3 basis points. The 10-year Treasury yield hovers at 4.248%, effectively unchanged from Monday's close. Markets rejected yesterday's attempt to break back into lower rate territory. The headline "Re-Entry Rejected" captures the current frustration among bond buyers who hoped for a meaningful rally. Without fresh economic weakness or a Treasury market surge, mortgage rates appear locked in their current range. GSE MBS purchases continue providing some insulation against broader bond market selloffs. However, this protective cushion has limits when Treasury yields remain elevated. The lower boundary of the mortgage rate range was established in early January, and breaking below it requires either significant selling to create buyer entry points or deteriorating economic data. Locking vs Floating Mortgage rates face resistance moving lower without major economic shifts. The current range established in early January appears solid, with no meaningful economic data releases expected until February's first week. MBS pricing helps manage intraday risk, but 10-year Treasury yield patterns drive longer-term momentum for rate direction. Today's Events No economic data releases scheduled for today. Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 100.01 | -0.04 | | 5.5 | 101.41 | 0 | | 6.0 | 102.42 | 0.03 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.98 | 0.01 | | 5.5 | 101.01 | -0.01 | | 6.0 | 102.15 | 0.02 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.58 | 99.848 | 0.002 | | 3 yr | 3.651 | 99.574 | 0.006 | | 5 yr | 3.838 | 99.038 | 0.009 | | 7 yr | 4.038 | 98.261 | 0.004 | | 10 yr | 4.25 | 97.983 | 0.004 | | 30 yr | 4.861 | 96.3 | -0.001 | Market Data

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