WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (AM) – 11/14/2025

Markets delivered a mysterious rally at 7am this morning after an otherwise flat overnight session. MBS gained 16 basis points and the 10-year Treasury dropped 26 basis points before the stock market opened. Most analysts can’t explain the sudden move, though some point to UK bond reversals as a possible trigger.

The rally was short-lived as gains evaporated after the NYSE opening bell. By 10am, MBS had given up most of their morning strength, falling 6 ticks from the highs. This pattern suggests the early rally was more about technical factors than fundamental economic news.

Federal Reserve officials continue sending mixed signals about December rate cuts. Three Fed speakers today include voting member Jeffrey Schmid, the only dissenter in October’s meeting. The market has slashed December cut odds below 50% after a string of hawkish comments this week.

Stock market weakness dominated headlines as the Nasdaq fell over 1.2% in futures trading. Tech stocks led the selloff with Bitcoin dropping to six-month lows. When stocks fall sharply, mortgage bonds typically benefit from flight-to-safety flows, but today’s correlation broke down.

A major controversy erupted in mortgage finance as reports suggest Bill Pulte’s confidant shared Fannie Mae pricing data with Freddie Mac. Senior officials warned this could expose both GSEs to price-fixing allegations. The scandal raises serious questions about leadership accountability in the housing finance system.

Locking vs Floating

Government reopening brought modest bond market weakness as expected. Bigger economic data releases will drive more serious momentum, but we’re still waiting for updated schedules from affected agencies. MBS help with intraday risk management while 10-year yield levels provide bigger picture trend guidance.

Today’s Events

– ADP Weekly Payrolls (Tuesday, 11/11): -11k

Bond Pricing

UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.26 | 0.03 |
| 5.5 | 100.83 | 0.03 |
| 6.0 | 102.13 | 0 |

GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.6 | 0.02 |
| 5.5 | 100.7 | -0.02 |
| 6.0 | 101.58 | -0.01 |

Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 3.591 | 99.826 | 0.002 |
| 3 yr | 3.586 | 99.757 | -0.003 |
| 5 yr | 3.7 | 99.659 | -0.003 |
| 7 yr | 3.889 | 99.155 | 0 |
| 10 yr | 4.12 | 99.023 | 0.005 |
| 30 yr | 4.728 | 98.358 | 0.018 |