WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (PM) – 11/12/2025

ADP’s weekly employment report shocked markets this morning, showing an 11,000 job loss average in October. This new data source has quickly become a major market mover despite being publicly available for only a few weeks. Traders responded immediately, driving UMBS prices up 30 basis points and pushing the 10-year Treasury yield down to 4.07%.

The broader bond market rallied on hopes the Federal Reserve might cut rates more aggressively given the weakening employment picture. MBS gained across all coupons with the benchmark 5.0 UMBS climbing from 99.19 to 99.47 by midday. This represents the strongest single-day performance in mortgage-backed securities since early October.

Political drama continues brewing at the FHFA where Director Bill Pulte faces scrutiny over allegations of improperly accessing Democratic officials’ mortgage records. Fannie Mae’s ethics investigators were reportedly terminated after launching probes into these activities. Despite the controversy, Pulte announced that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will remain in conservatorship while exploring a minority IPO of up to 5% of shares.

The government shutdown resolution appears imminent with the House scheduled to vote this evening around 7 PM ET. Markets have already priced in much of the positive sentiment, but final passage could provide additional tailwinds for bonds. Purchase mortgage applications surged 6% last week to their highest level since September, showing surprising strength as the housing market enters its traditionally slow season.

Locking vs Floating

Wednesday’s volatility could be elevated with government shutdown resolution on the table. Markets have already gained significantly on the ADP employment data, leaving bonds vulnerable to profit-taking. If shutdown optimism fueled overnight gains, confirmation of government reopening could trigger additional weakness.

Consider locking deals closing within 15 days given the extra day of global market movement from the Veterans Day holiday.

Today’s Events

ADP Weekly Payrolls showed -11k job loss
7:00 AM: MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Refi Index, MBA Purchase Index
1:00 PM: 10-year Note Auction ($42 billion)

Bond Pricing

UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.47 | 0.29 |
| 5.5 | 100.97 | 0.22 |
| 6.0 | 102.14 | 0.07 |

GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.74 | 0.17 |
| 5.5 | 100.79 | 0.09 |
| 6.0 | 101.66 | 0.06 |

Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 3.566 | 99.874 | -0.027 |
| 3 yr | 3.562 | 99.824 | -0.041 |
| 5 yr | 3.673 | 99.781 | -0.046 |
| 7 yr | 3.856 | 100.118 | -0.053 |
| 10 yr | 4.072 | 101.449 | -0.046 |
| 30 yr | 4.668 | 101.325 | -0.045 |