**WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (AM) – 06/30/2026**

Quarter-end position squaring added only 2 basis points to the 10-year yield this morning, leaving bonds still well below the critical 4.42% technical level. UMBS 5.0 coupons dropped 6 ticks to 98.58, while GNMA securities declined more sharply across all coupons as the market absorbed modest selling pressure at the open. The economic calendar heats up today with job openings data at 10 a.m.

and consumer confidence readings, though only the JOLTS report carries real volatility risk for mortgage pricing. MBS prices remain trapped in a narrow trading range as investors adopt a cautious wait-and-see posture ahead of Thursday’s employment report, which will be critical for determining whether the Fed remains hawkish on rate hikes before year-end.

**Locking vs Floating**

Bonds continue consolidating within a narrow band after successfully breaking below 4.42%, with 4.366% serving as the floor over recent trading days.

Tuesday evening carries slightly elevated risk as quarter-end fund rotations could trigger asset shifts from bonds into equities, while Wednesday evening represents high-risk territory given Thursday’s jobs report looms. A decisive breakout—either above or below the current range—will depend on the next few economic data releases and any market-moving shifts related to the new quarter beginning.

**Today’s Events**

9:00 a.m.

— April FHFA Home Prices y/y (forecast: 1.7%)

9:00 a.m. — April Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (forecast: 0.9%, prior: 0.8%)

9:45 a.m. — June Chicago PMI (forecast: 58.1, prior: 62.7)

10:00 a.m.

— May USA JOLTS Job Openings (forecast: 7.30M, prior: 7.61M)

10:00 a.m. — June CB Consumer Confidence (forecast: 94.7, prior: 93.1)

**Bond Pricing**

**UMBS 30 yr**
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |

**GNMA 30 yr**
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |

**Treasuries**
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |