**WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (AM) – 07/10/2026**
Markets are slightly stronger, but bond-specific selling pressure from the past 1.5 weeks hasn’t reversed despite Friday’s gains. The strength came primarily from oil price movements rather than compelling bond-market fundamentals. Ten-year Treasury yields are holding at 4.549 percent, down just half a basis point from yesterday’s close.
Risk-tolerant loan officers still have room to use the 4.59 percent ceiling as a lock trigger, though broader momentum remains uncertain. Jobless claims hit 215,000, slightly better than the 218,000 forecast and flat with the prior week. UMBS prices remain essentially flat with minimal intra-day movement across all coupons.
The 5.0 coupon is at 97.7, the 5.5 at 99.89, and the 6.0 at 101.71 with nearly zero daily changes. GNMA securities show slightly more resilience, with the 6.0 coupon up 0.03 points to 102.11. Treasury yields across the curve remain compressed, with the 2-year at 4.185 and the 30-year at 5.062 percent.
This lack of volatility is being welcomed by investors tired of recent whipsaw action. The housing market continues to face headwinds despite improving affordability trends. Existing home sales fell 2.4 percent month-over-month in June as elevated mortgage rates and high home prices dampened demand despite wage growth outpacing appreciation.
June funded mortgage volume increased 6 percent year-over-year and 8 percent month-over-month according to Curinos data. The average 30-year conforming retail funded rate for June was 6.35 percent, up 10 basis points from May but down 44 basis points compared to the prior year. Prepayment speeds in Agency MBS reveal continued divergence between loan types and servicers.
Ginnie Mae II 30-year speeds declined 7 percent overall in June, with VA loans prepaying faster than FHA loans due to the VA streamline refinance advantage. Servicer performance remains a critical factor, with Planet Home Lending leading VA rankings, Rocket and Quicken dominating FHA pools, and Village Capital showing the fastest speeds on newer vintages. This data reinforces that originator-specific characteristics drive pool behavior as much as market conditions.
Government-backed mortgage programs announced multiple updates this week affecting lenders and originators. FHA released 14 policy updates through mortgagee letters designed to reduce costs and increase credit accessibility for borrowers with FHA insurance. USDA Rural Development increased interest rates for SFH Direct Programs effective June 1, and Newrez Correspondent added 1.75 percent to ARM margins for FHA and VA loans.
Onity Mortgage expanded delegated correspondent options by accepting GNMA eNotes. Treasury auctions this week showed strong investor demand despite elevated yields and geopolitical uncertainty, easing near-term concerns about weak demand pushing rates higher. The 30-year bond auction capped a solid trifecta of auctions with good investor participation, suggesting the market is absorbing increased Treasury issuance effectively.
Looking ahead, next week’s CPI report and Federal Reserve policy guidance will be critical drivers of rate direction. The positive takeaway is that auction demand remains resilient even at higher yield levels.
**Locking vs Floating**
Today’s market strength is tempting, but it’s not enough to flip the directional narrative without compelling bond-market evidence.
The 4.59 percent ceiling has proven resilient for risk-tolerant clients, but until selling pressure reverses meaningfully, locking is still the prudent default for conservative borrowers.
**Today’s Events**
Jobless Claims (Jul/04): 215.0K vs 218K forecast, 215K prior
**Bond Pricing**
**UMBS 30 yr**
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 97.7 | 0 |
| 5.5 | 99.89 | 0.02 |
| 6.0 | 101.71 | -0.01 |
**GNMA 30 yr**
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 98.21 | 0 |
| 5.5 | 100.32 | 0 |
| 6.0 | 102.11 | 0.03 |
**Treasuries**
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 4.185 | 99.649 | 0.004 |
| 3 yr | 4.22 | 99.734 | 0.006 |
| 5 yr | 4.284 | 99.292 | 0.003 |
| 7 yr | 4.408 | 99.056 | -0.003 |
| 10 yr | 4.549 | 98.613 | -0.002 |
| 30 yr | 5.062 | 99.052 | -0.004 |
