**WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (PM) – 07/13/2026**
Markets took a sharp dive as geopolitical tensions and Federal Reserve commentary whipsawed bond investors into the red. MBS prices fell 3/8ths point by late afternoon while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed 5.6 basis points to 4.615%, marking the weakest levels of the day. Fed speaker Christopher Waller’s comments and renewed fighting near the Strait of Hormuz both triggered sharp selling pressure throughout the session.
For mortgage originators, this environment favors locking rates now rather than floating, given the clear downward momentum in securities pricing. A landmark academic study shows that UWM’s 2021 “All-In” ultimatum—which forced brokers to choose between working exclusively with United Wholesale or Rocket Mortgage—created surprising spillovers beyond the targeted lenders. Research from University of Kentucky finance professor Spencer Stone found that competing wholesale lenders immediately cut rates by an average of 5 basis points, a discount that lasted throughout the four-month study period.
On a $300,000 mortgage, that translates to over $500 in present-value savings for borrowers. The most intriguing finding: borrowers in markets with little direct overlap between UWM and Rocket still received rate cuts, suggesting lenders couldn’t safely target discounts by geography without inviting disparate-impact scrutiny. The antitrust case against Optimal Blue suffered a major blow as defendants successfully eliminated 17 of 29 originally named companies through coordinated dismissal motions.
The Mendez v. Optimal Blue lawsuit accused the nation’s largest lenders and the dominant pricing engine provider of operating like a cartel to artificially inflate rates and fees. Defendants argued that Optimal Blue’s analytics tools provide only backward-looking, anonymized data that even the Federal Reserve uses—not instructions on how to price loans.
With only 9 lenders remaining as defendants and trial not scheduled before 2029, the case has lost significant momentum. Nonbank servicers dominated mortgage servicing rights transfers in the first quarter, accounting for 64.2% of all purchase activity as $137.8 billion in unpaid principal balance changed hands. Carrington Mortgage Services led buyers with $36.8 billion in acquisitions, while PennyMac emerged as the quarter’s largest seller at $24.2 billion.
Lower-coupon loans from the 2020 and 2021 vintages—particularly those carrying rates between 2.5% and 3.49%—were the most actively traded, reflecting originator appetite for refinanced portfolio seasoning. This MSR fluidity signals continued consolidation among nonbank servicers and a shift away from bank servicing dominance. The Ginnie Mae MBS portfolio reached $2.97 trillion as of June 30, with total issuance for the quarter hitting $53.9 billion.
First American faces a new class-action lawsuit in California over its DataTree product, which aggregates homeowner and mortgage data for subscribers at various access levels. The FHFA also signaled plans to remove “reputational harm” as a basis for suspending firms and individuals doing business with the GSEs and Federal Home Loan Banks. These regulatory refinements continue reshaping the operational landscape for servicers and data providers across the industry.
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**Locking vs Floating**
Floating rates carries asymmetric risk today with no clear catalyst for improvement. The combination of weaker MBS pricing and rising Treasury yields created a decidedly unfriendly float environment unless you’re willing to catch falling knives.
Tamer inflation data or a peaceful shift in geopolitical tensions could eventually reverse course, but there’s no reliable indicator that either outcome is more likely than not. Lock now to avoid additional downside exposure in this choppy market.
**Bond Pricing**
**UMBS 30 yr**
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 97.09 | -0.46 |
| 5.5 | 99.41 | -0.37 |
| 6.0 | 101.43 | -0.26 |
**GNMA 30 yr**
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 97.64 | -0.51 |
| 5.5 | 99.99 | -0.28 |
| 6.0 | 102.01 | -0.12 |
**Treasuries**
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2yr | 4.273 | 99.482 | 0.063 |
| 3yr | 4.318 | 99.463 | 0.074 |
| 5yr | 4.377 | 98.879 | 0.072 |
| 7yr | 4.495 | 98.545 | 0.071 |
| 10yr | 4.616 | 98.09 | 0.056 |
| 30yr | 5.107 | 98.362 | 0.049 |
