WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (09/29/2025)

Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) markets saw a modest mix of movement today, reflecting the evolving economic signals and Federal Reserve policy expectations. The UMBS 30-year securities experienced a slight price decline, with prices down by roughly 0.07 for the 5.0 coupon and smaller changes for other coupons. This contrasted with some small gains seen in GNMA 30-year securities, where prices edged up by about 0.14 for the 5.0 coupon and slightly for others. The divergence suggests selective investor appetite and nuanced market responses to risk in the agency MBS sectors. Shifts in the 10-year Treasury bond also played a pivotal role today, with yields easing slightly from previous sessions to around 4.16%, marking a gentle pullback in longer-duration government debt. This shift feeds into mortgage pricing directly, connecting bond market dynamics to homeowner costs. The Treasury movement reflects cautious investor positioning amid ongoing talks about inflation and potential economic growth moderation.

Market commentary from experts, including Barry Habib and regular posts from MBS Highway, point to a mixed but cautiously optimistic view. After months of decline, some housing market indexes like MBS Highway’s National Housing Index showed a small rebound, reflecting incremental improvements in mortgage rate sentiment and refinance activity. Meanwhile, Rob Chrisman highlighted that bond market softness stemmed partly from increased supply and demand fluctuations, stressing the complexity behind today’s price actions. Mortgage rates hold roughly steady at a 6.38% 30-year fixed rate, with little day-over-day change—a sign of mortgage markets digesting recent Federal Reserve signals. Economic reports that showed upbeat, yet balanced, data contributed to the mixed price signals seen across MBS and Treasury markets. This delicate balance is causing mortgage originators and lenders to carefully monitor daily trends, given their direct influence on borrower demand and new loan lock volumes.

In the broader mortgage business environment, refinance activity remains subdued but steady, with purchase originations maintaining resilience despite prevailing interest rate levels. Industry analysts note that while housing affordability challenges remain, the market is still adjusting to a new normal after years of pandemic-driven fluctuations. Real estate sales continue to face headwinds but benefit from solid demand in specific segments, like first-time buyers and suburban markets. In summary, today’s mortgage and Treasury markets reflect a nuanced tug-of-war, influenced by economic data, Fed policy expectations, and investor risk appetite.

Mortgage-backed securities moved unevenly between UMBS and GNMA, the 10-year Treasury saw modest yield decreases, and mortgage rates held steady around 6.38% for the 30-year fixed product. Industry commentators emphasize the importance of closely watching bond supply-demand dynamics and economic signals as the new refinancing and purchase markets evolve. Subscribe now to receive daily, free market insights like this directly in your inbox and stay informed on the latest mortgage and bond market developments.

Real-Time Pricing

UMBS 30-Year:
– 5.0: Price 99.47, Day Δ -0.07
– 5.5: Price 101.05, Day Δ -0.02
– 6.0: Price 102.30, Day Δ +0.03

GNMA 30-Year:
– 5.0: Price 99.72, Day Δ +0.14
– 5.5: Price 100.91, Day Δ +0.09
– 6.0: Price 101.79, Day Δ +0.03

Treasuries:
– 2-yr: Price 100.094, Yield 3.576
– 5-yr: Price 99.743, Yield 3.682
– 10-yr: Price 100.996, Yield 4.127