WTMS Blog Today: What’s Up in Mortgage Today – 06/17/24

UMBS started the week in the red, down 13 bps in the first hour of trading, while S&P futures dropped 3 points. Global stocks and bonds remained under pressure due to pre-election turmoil in France, with central banks showing no rush to cut interest rates. The upcoming French elections are causing investor anxiety, leading to higher euro-area bond yields, despite France’s Cac 40 benchmark rising 0.4%. Central banks in the UK, Australia, and Norway are expected to delay rate cuts, contributing to market uncertainty. Markets will be closed on Wednesday for the Juneteenth holiday. The Fed Funds futures indicate a 66% chance of a rate cut by the September FOMC meeting, with a similar chance for two rate cuts this year, reflecting the slowing economy and weary consumer sentiment. After last week’s rally, 10yr Treasuries moved up to 4.28%, while MBS held steady after a week of underperformance. NY Fed Manufacturing had minimal impact, with traders unsurprised by Fed’s Harker’s updates. Retail Sales are anticipated to significantly influence market direction tomorrow. UMBS ended the day down 14 bps at 100.58.

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