**WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (AM) – 10/22/2026**

Mortgage rates slipped to 7.41 percent last week, the first weekly decline in over two months, yet borrower demand continued its freefall as purchase and refinance applications both fell sharply. The 30-year fixed remains more than one percentage point above last year’s levels, effectively locking out the refi market and keeping purchase volume at multi-year lows despite marginal rate improvement. Loan officers are increasingly under pressure as lenders question workforce sustainability through winter, with volumes down 5.3 percent week-over-week and down 26 percent year-over-year.

Non-QM production has surged to fill gaps left by conventional conforming volume, with adjustable-rate mortgages reaching 14 percent of originations, their highest level since 2019. Housing starts fell 5.2 percent to 1.221 million annualized in September, missing forecasts and signaling that builders are pulling back on construction despite persistent housing shortages. Geopolitical tensions, elevated oil prices near $112 per barrel, and concerns over artificial intelligence infrastructure spending have created safe-haven demand for Treasuries, pushing 10-year yields down sharply despite persistent inflation data.

**Locking vs Floating**

Hedging strategy remains fluid as traders balance duration extension risks against potential Treasury rallies. Basis volatility and shifting Fed expectations mean lenders should monitor both short-covering activity and positioning changes before making execution decisions. Pipeline hedgers face two-sided risk: further rate increases widen mortgage spreads, while a Treasury rally shortens MBS duration and forces costly adjustments.

**Today’s Events**

September housing data continues to deteriorate as affordability constraints mount. The MBA expects 2027 production to fall about 5 percent to below $2 trillion. Weekly initial claims and the leading economic index provide clarity on labor market resilience.

**Bond Pricing**

**UMBS 30 yr**
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |

**GNMA 30 yr**
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |

**Treasuries**
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |