Well That Makes Sense – Page 44 – WTMS Well That Makes Sense

“Damn, there is so much great knowledge out there. Did you know that “BOOKS” are full of smart?? No, I mean like life changing, I-wish-I-knew-that-years-ago type stuff.

I know that I was waaaayyy late to the game figuring it out. And I know that a lot of you are too busy to read as much as you ‘should’. And that is why you need me.

I still remember how it started for me. It started in June of 2008. After 11 years …..Click to continue

Mortgage Today (AM) - 05/04/26

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May 4, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 05/04/2026 Bond markets opened weaker as 10-year Treasury yields pushed toward 4.42%, extending pressure on MBS pricing. UMBS 5.0 fell from 98.57 to 98.36 while GNMA 5.0 dipped to 99.06, with traders redirecting cash into equities during earnings season. The market's disconnect between oil recovery and sustained yield strength suggests structural shifts rather than geopolitical headlines driving rates higher. UWM escalated its pursuit of Two Harbors Investment Corp. with a direct shareholder bid of $12 per share, bypassing the board and escalating fiduciary duty arguments. The move tops CrossCountry's $11.30 offer by more than 6%, signaling intense competition for mortgage servicing rights and secondary market infrastructure. This three-way bidding war underscores how valuable MSR portfolios and ancillary revenue streams have become in today's consolidating mortgage landscape. April ISM Manufacturing Employment fell to 46.4 versus 49.0 forecasted, marking a notable softening in factory-floor hiring. The weakness contrasts sharply with firm headline labor data, raising stagflation concerns among dissenting FOMC members who fear weak labor trends combined with persistent energy inflation. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have now activated VantageScore 4.0 and FICO Score 10T credit scoring models, expanding borrower access to qualification pathways and reducing friction for lenders serving thin-file populations. Mortgage originators must recalibrate float strategies as elevated headline risk meets persistent inflation expectations that keep the Federal Reserve sidelined. The technical ceiling near 4.37% has held despite multiple attempts to penetrate lower, suggesting limited room for a sustained bond rally without major economic data shifts. Housing starts jumped 10.8% to 1.5 million units annually, but permit weakness signals builders are pulling back on future commitments even as current construction accelerates. Servicer engagement gaps are widening—satisfaction with borrower communication fell 10 points year-over-year while homeowner ability to identify their servicer declined. Originators investing in personalized, data-driven borrower communication now hold competitive advantages as technology reduces friction without sacrificing human touch. Independent mortgage lenders retain speed and flexibility advantages over banks, particularly as affordability pressures and regulatory modernization reshape competitive dynamics. Friday's employment report dominates this week's calendar, with April payrolls expected to show modest growth after March's 178,000 gain. Labor force participation rebound could push unemployment slightly higher as firms pause hiring, while supply reports and ISM Services data will add context to economic momentum. Lock-focused originators may find opportunity if Friday's print disappoints, though current positioning suggests low conviction across the market. **Locking vs Floating** ISM manufacturing data delivered a mixed signal: employment weakness contrasts sharply with stable PMI, creating uncertainty around whether the labor market is truly softening or simply experiencing seasonal adjustment noise. Risk-takers betting on Iran conflict resolution have near-term upside, while defensive postures focusing on inflation durability and war-related energy costs suggest yields remain supported above current levels. Technical analysis points to recent highs near 4.37% as a meaningful ceiling, though sustained conviction on a lower-yield move requires either economic data surprise or major risk sentiment shift. **Today's Events** ISM Manufacturing Employment (Apr): 46.4 vs 49.0 forecast, 48.7 previous ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr): 52.7 vs 53.0 forecast, 52.7 previous ISM Mfg Prices Paid (Apr): 84.6 vs 80.0 forecast, 78.3 previous **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.36 | -0.34 | | 5.5 | 100.40 | -0.19 | | 6.0 | 102.05 | -0.11 | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |

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Mortgage Today (AM) - 05/01/26

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May 1, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 05/01/2026 Jerome Powell just blocked Trump from removing him as a sitting Fed governor, and the Fed's most divided meeting in 34 years signals deeper discord over future rate cuts. Eight Fed governors voted to hold rates at 3.5%-3.75%, but four dissents came from different camps: one wanting immediate cuts while three opposed forward guidance suggesting cuts ahead. Powell's decision to remain on the Board after his May 15 chairmanship ends marks an unprecedented stand for Fed independence that will reshape mortgage market expectations. Homeowners insurance premiums jumped 64% from end of 2021 to end of 2025, climbing from $1,597 annually to $2,625 nationally, with Louisiana, Florida, and Texas now averaging above $3,900 per year. These escrow-related increases directly tighten borrower debt-to-income ratios and are quietly killing deals in high-exposure states like Florida and Arizona. For mortgage originators, this insurance shock has become a hidden pricing and approval barrier that rivals rate sensitivity in many markets. UWM launched dual-credit scoring for conventional loans, automatically running both FICO and VantageScore 4.0 and letting brokers pick whichever helps the borrower's pricing. The move follows FHFA's green light for VantageScore on Fannie and Freddie loans, with FHA adoption coming this year from HUD. Originators can now help borrowers qualify under alternative scoring models when traditional FICO metrics create obstacles, expanding access at 80% LTV or below. Castlelake and Redwood Trust partnered to acquire up to $8 billion in prime jumbo mortgages, with Redwood's Sequoia platform sourcing loans while Castlelake provides institutional capital. Sequoia's loan volume doubled over the past year as banks retreated from mortgage lending, signaling continued shift toward non-bank securitization platforms. This $8 billion channel reinforces the growing role of specialty players in distributing jumbo originations outside traditional bank channels. Jobless claims fell to 189K versus a 215K forecast, suggesting labor tightness remains despite cooling data elsewhere, while core PCE inflation came in exactly as expected at 0.3% monthly and 3.2% annually. Q1 GDP grew only 2.0% versus 2.3% expectations and employment costs rose 0.9%, beating forecast by a pip and signaling wage pressure. These mixed signals—strong labor, moderating growth, stable inflation—left yields relatively flat despite oil market recovery providing brief support. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 1.2 basis points to 4.383% early Friday as UMBS 5.5 and 6.0 coupons declined modestly while 5.0s held steady, and GNMA securities tracked similarly with slight losses across mid-higher coupons. Yesterday's yield peaks coincided technically with March 24-26 levels, which could signal a bounce if yields stabilize under 4.37%, though geopolitical headlines remain the primary volatility driver. Mortgage traders should watch whether the Fed's Powell decision and mixed economic data can support a meaningful bond rally or if war-related risk keeps the ceiling in place. **Locking vs Floating** Originators face a technical inflection point where recent yield highs meet historical support levels from late March. A technical bounce could emerge if 10-year yields hold under 4.37%, but geopolitical conflict remains the dominant volatility trigger rather than pure economic data. Strong jobless claims and moderating GDP growth provide some yield support, yet employment cost surprises and insurance cost shocks create counterpressure on borrower qualification capacity. Lock vs. float decisions should weigh this geopolitical ceiling alongside the mixed labor-versus-growth picture. **Today's Events** Continued Claims (Apr/18): 1,785K vs. 1,820K forecast, 1,821K prior Jobless Claims (Apr/25): 189K vs. 215K forecast, 214K prior Core PCE (m/m) (Mar): 0.3% vs. 0.3% forecast, 0.4% prior Core PCE (y/y) (Mar): 3.2% vs. 3.2% forecast, 3% prior PCE (y/y) (Mar): 3.5% vs. 3.5% forecast, 2.8% prior PCE prices (m/m) (Mar): 0.7% vs. 0.7% forecast, 0.4% prior Core PCE Prices QoQ (Q1): 4.3% vs. 4.1% forecast, 2.7% prior Employment Costs (Q1): 0.9% vs. 0.8% forecast, 0.7% prior GDP (Q1): 2.0% vs. 2.3% forecast, 0.5% prior **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | **UMBS 30yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | |---|---|---| | 5.0 | 98.75 | 0.01 | | 5.5 | 100.62 | -0.04 | | 6.0 | 102.15 | -0.04 | **GNMA 30yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | |---|---|---| | 5.0 | 99.34 | 0.01 | | 5.5 | 100.81 | -0.02 | | 6.0 | 101.99 | -0.06 | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | |---|---|---|---| | 2 yr | 3.867 | 100.015 | -0.002 | | 3 yr | 3.888 | 98.912 | -0.002 | | 5 yr | 3.998 | 99.448 | -0.005 | | 7 yr | 4.18 | 100.424 | -0.007 | | 10 yr | 4.364 | 98.082 | -0.007 | | 30 yr | 4.961 | 96.723 | -0.005 | Subscribe free to WTMS at WellThatMakesSense.com for daily mortgage market intel. Market Data

Mortgage Today (PM) - 04/30/26

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April 30, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 04/30/2026 Bonds shook off geopolitical nervousness and rallied into the close as oil prices retreated, pulling the 10-year yield down to 4.383% by 3:21 PM. MBS prices climbed 31 basis points on the day, signaling genuine bid strength in mortgages despite a heavy economic data dump that included strong jobs reports and sticky wage inflation. Yesterday's yield spike to 4.66% now looks like a potential technical ceiling—a pattern eerily similar to March 24–26 that could support another bounce if yields hold under 4.37%. The real question for originators isn't whether this bounce holds; it's whether this choppy, 30+ basis point intraday range becomes the new normal. This volatility destroys pipeline clarity and makes rate locks harder to sell when clients see the market swinging wild. The Fed held rates flat yesterday but signaled serious internal division with four dissenting votes—the most since 1992. That split matters far more than the hold itself because borrowers don't care what the Fed did; they care what comes next, and a fractured FOMC sends no clear signal about rate direction. With Powell's tenure ending soon and his successor uncertain on inflation strategy, the market is pricing in "higher for longer with surprises," which is exactly the environment where origination suffers most. You can defend a 7% rate world if clients believe rates go higher. You can defend a 4% world if clients see cuts ahead. But a 4.38% world with a confused Fed heading into a leadership transition? That's when lock-unlock hesitation paralyzes pipelines. Economic data arrived mostly in line with expectations, which actually worked in bonds' favor by removing surprise risk. Jobless claims fell to 189K versus 215K forecast—the lowest reading in over three years—but mortgages barely flinched, suggesting the market is already pricing in labor strength. Core PCE inflation matched expectations at 0.3% month-over-month and 3.2% year-over-year, offering no fresh inflation shock. GDP came in at 2.0% annualized versus 2.3% expected, which is softer but not recessionary and not enough to spark a rate-cut narrative. When data cooperates this way, technicals and sentiment dominate, which is why the oil correlation mattered more than any single number on the calendar. UMBS 30-year coupons posted solid intraday gains across the curve: the 5.0% coupon climbed 40 basis points to 98.75, the 5.5% gained 28 basis points to 100.66, and the 6.0% rose 20 basis points to 102.18. GNMA securities trended similarly but with slightly softer momentum, suggesting institutional demand is favoring agency UMBS paper over government mortgage-backed bonds. Treasury volatility compressed—the 2-year yield fell 8.2 basis points while the 30-year fell only 3.3 basis points—indicating a modest flattening bias as longer rates held firmer. For lenders holding hedges, this curve behavior creates both cover-your-short opportunities and risk if the steepening resumes. The 10-year Treasury yield's technical floor at 4.34–4.37% is now the most important level for originators to watch over the next 48 hours. If that breaks lower, expect another 4–6 basis point decline in primary mortgage rates as the market tests the 4.28–4.19% ceiling range, which could unlock a small wave of refi activity and ease origination pressure. If yields bounce back above 4.40% instead, we're back to the rangebound chop that killed productivity all April, and clients will hunker down until the Fed narrative clarifies or a new leadership team emerges. War-related headlines will likely remain the wildcard—small geopolitical flare-ups are now triggering 2–3 basis point swings faster than any economic release. The real origination test isn't today's 31-basis-point MBS pop; it's whether lenders can convince borrowers that a fragmented Fed and 4.38% rates justify locking sooner rather than later. Hesitation thrives in this gray zone where no direction is clear and surprise risk cuts both ways. Lock your stronger files while technicals favor yields under 4.40%; float only if you've earned enough pipeline flow to afford the volatility tax. The next 72 hours will tell us if this bounce is real support or just another false signal before yields resume climbing. **Locking vs Floating** Yesterday's yield spike and today's oil-driven rally illustrate why technical ceilings matter: if 4.66% was a genuine blow-off top, then yields pulling back under 4.40% could indicate early support forming. From a purely technical view, yesterday's high yields matched those seen on March 24–26, suggesting this level has tested buyer interest twice before. From a market psychology view, volatility will continue to stem from geopolitical headlines and Fed messaging confusion, not from economics alone. Lock borrowers in the 4.34–4.40% range; float if you're chasing risk premium on a potential dip toward 4.20%. **Today's Events** Continued Claims (Apr)/18: 1,785K vs 1,820K forecast, 1,821K prior Core PCE (m/m) (Mar): 0.3% vs 0.3% forecast, 0.4% prior Core PCE (y/y) (Mar): 3.2% vs 3.2% forecast, 3.0% prior Core PCE Prices QoQ Q1: 4.3% vs 4.1% forecast, 2.7% prior Employment Costs Q1: 0.9% vs 0.8% forecast, 0.7% prior GDP Q1: 2.0% vs 2.3% forecast, 0.5% prior Jobless Claims (Apr)/25: 189K vs 215K forecast, 214K prior PCE (y/y) (Mar): 3.5% vs 3.5% forecast, 2.8% prior PCE prices (m/m) (Mar): 0.7% vs 0.7% forecast, 0.4% prior **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.865 | 100.02 | -0.082 | | 3 yr | 3.889 | 98.908 | -0.078 | | 5 yr | 4.003 | 99.426 | -0.074 | | 7 yr | 4.186 | 100.384 | -0.065 | | 10 yr | 4.371 | 98.024 | -0.057 | | 30 yr | 4.966 | 96.646 | -0.033 | Market Data

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