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HOME2023-01-22T13:43:33-07:00

“Damn, there is so much great knowledge out there. Did you know that “BOOKS” are full of smart?? No, I mean like life changing, I-wish-I-knew-that-years-ago type stuff.

I know that I was waaaayyy late to the game figuring it out. And I know that a lot of you are too busy to read as much as you ‘should’. And that is why you need me.

I still remember how it started for me. It started in June of 2008. After 11  years …..Click to continue

Mortgage Today (AM) - 11/02/26 {{catlist}}
November 2, 2026 READ MORE **WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 11/02/2026** Mortgage rates are off to a steadier week after Treasury yields fell nearly 50 basis points in October, pulling the 10-year from 5.36 percent down to under 4.90 percent. Freddie Mac reported third-quarter net income jumped 17 percent to $3.2 billion despite staffing cuts at both GSEs, signaling profitability in a tough environment. Election Day uncertainty and Friday's jobs report loom as key catalysts, though midterm outcomes likely won't materially change the economic outlook or Fed policy trajectory. UWM expanded VantageScore into non-agency lending, creating opportunities for borrowers who don't qualify under FICO minimums on jumbo and bank statement products. Dark Matter acquired House Numbers' agentic AI platform to accelerate automation in loan origination, bringing proven production technology in-house and hiring the founding team. Non-bank lenders are aggressively capturing home equity market share from traditional banks, shifting from an 85-15 split to roughly 65-35 as HELOCs and seconds emerge as the best recapture tool. Zillow Home Loans began covering full FHA down payments up to 3.5 percent with no-interest second mortgages in 43 states, fundamentally changing competitive dynamics for brokers and LOs offering conventional pricing alone. The accessible home equity pool hit record $13.2 trillion in Q2 2026, yet 88 percent is held by rate-locked homeowners reluctant to refinance, creating a secondary opportunity for equity extraction products and solutions. CrossCountry Mortgage sent cease-and-desist letters to 25+ former loan officers demanding 75 basis points per refinanced borrower under a two-year non-solicitation clause, signaling tighter enforcement of employment agreements. Construction and manufacturing activity showed resilience with ISM Manufacturing at 55.5 percent and strong new-home buyer traffic offsetting affordability headwinds. Fed Chair Warsh reaffirmed the 2 percent inflation target and said the central bank will hold six policy meetings annually instead of eight going forward, reducing rate-setting frequency. Application volume ticked up 3.4 percent last week as purchase apps climbed 4 percent and refi apps gained 3 percent, though both remain sharply below year-ago levels. Mortgage rates are showing improvement as oil prices pull back and equity volatility sustains flight-to-quality flows, though messaging remains uncertain pending this Friday's payroll data. Lenders running M&A scenarios should evaluate more than headline financials—look at whether the acquisition holds a defensible competitive moat, proprietary IP, and resilience through market cycles. The mortgage M&A market is heating up with multiple buyers competing on valuations, making early-mover advantage and data-driven due diligence critical to pricing deals fairly. --- **Locking vs Floating** Pipeline hedging risk remains two-sided: rising equity volatility could extend the bond rally and pressure spreads wider, while a sudden shift back to Fed tightening expectations could reverse course quickly. Lock-and-close decisions require monitoring not just rate direction but also basis volatility and hedge positioning, as mortgage-backed securities spreads can widen dramatically even when Treasuries rally. **Today's Events** October ISM Manufacturing (55.5%, ahead of 54.6% forecast) | September Job Openings | September Construction Spending | U.S. Treasury quarterly refunding announcement | October Jobless Claims (expected 200K) | October Payrolls (expected +65K) **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |

Market Data Mortgage Today (PM) - 10/30/26 {{catlist}}
October 30, 2026 READ MORE **WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 10/30/2026** UMBS rallied into the close Thursday and held steady Friday as tech-stock jitters kept safe‑haven bids alive. The 30‑year UMBS 6.0 traded around 99.8 late Thursday, up roughly 5/8ths on the day, while the 10‑year Treasury yield dipped back below 5%. Price action has been driven less by data and more by risk-off flows tied to AI/data‑center credit headlines. Even so, the rally has paused at familiar levels near 5.00% in the 10‑year. Intraday volatility remains elevated. Ginnie Mae coupons participated in the move. GNMA 6.0s finished Thursday near 99.8, up roughly 0.3, with FHA/VA rate sheets improving modestly. Conventional stacks outperformed earlier in the week, but GNMA caught up as buyers leaned into liquidity. Spreads versus Treasuries remain wider than normal, keeping primary/secondary spreads sticky. Pipeline hedgers should mind coupon selection as carry and liquidity diverge. Macro inputs were mixed. The Fed held rates unchanged and signaled a wait‑and‑see stance, and September core PCE printed 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y alongside a 3.4% Q3 GDP pace. The front end of the curve rallied on the Fed tone while long rates treaded water, reinforcing a flatter bias. Net‑net, the data didn’t derail the MBS bid, but it didn’t confirm a bigger downshift in inflation either. Translation: momentum is still headline‑ and tech‑driven. On the desk, earnings underscore the split between production and servicing. Rocket posted sharply higher profits and market‑share gains on a $43.6B quarter, aided by a large MSR platform and strong recapture, while Pennymac leaned on servicing income, announced $29B of MSR sales to reduce debt, and outlined cost cuts as production margins compressed. UWM gave brokers price relief by waiving FHA/VA credit‑score hits through year‑end. CrossCountry said VantageScore 4.0 lifted borrower pricing by about 62 bps in LLPA on average for eligible loans. Competitive execution is increasingly about which scorecard and fee stack you can use for a given borrower. At the policy level, the Administration’s new order pushes cheaper refis via permanent title‑acceptance pilots, potential LLPA relief on qualifying rate‑reduction refis, and borrower‑visible savings. The mortgage‑insurance piece moved to a pilot that applies prospectively, with proactive PMI cancellation based on current values limited to new originations. Net effect: potential refi friction falls if agencies follow through, but operational and documentation standards will decide how fast savings reach consumers. Lenders should prepare disclosures and workflows that pass through any fee reductions cleanly. Watch FHFA guidance for scope and timing. Housing demand remains fragile even as rates eased this week. MBA applications ticked up, ARMs gained share, and multiple metros are now skirting buyer’s‑market territory, yet affordability still binds and buyers are choosier. Programs that lower cash‑to‑close, including DPA and seller concessions, are doing more heavy lifting than price cuts. Use the dip to refresh pre‑approvals, price permanent buydowns versus ARM alternatives, and re‑quote edge files that stalled at last week’s highs. Speed matters when intraday reprices are in play. **Locking vs Floating** The near‑term rate path is being set by “tech jitters” more than data, so rallies can extend or reverse quickly on headlines. With 10‑year yields stalling near 5.00% and resistance below at ~4.93%, close‑in pipelines should favor locking on morning strength to avoid negative reprices. Files with time and tolerance for volatility can float tactically, but only with firm triggers and fast lock execution. Next week’s jobs data can reset momentum; until then, expect choppy, headline‑driven sessions. Coupon selection and hedge discipline matter more than usual. **Today's Events** Core PCE (m/m) Sep: 0.3%; Core PCE (y/y) Sep: 3.1%. GDP Q3: 3.4% annualized. Initial Jobless Claims (week of Oct 24): 194,000. Subscribe free for daily clarity at WellThatMakesSense.com.

Market Data Mortgage Today (AM) - 10/30/26 {{catlist}}
October 30, 2026 READ MORE **WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 10/30/2026** Mortgage rates stumbled lower this week as Treasury yields declined and the Federal Reserve held rates steady, with 10-year Treasuries ending near 4.92 percent by Friday morning. The Fed voted 10-2 to maintain its benchmark rate at 3.75–4.00 percent, signaling patience while acknowledging persistently elevated inflation and resilient economic activity. Chair Kevin Warsh's cautious messaging and announcement that the Fed will conduct only six policy meetings annually instead of eight tamped down near-term rate-hike expectations. Core PCE inflation cooled to 2.5 percent on an annualized basis, offering some relief to fixed-income markets, though headline inflation remains elevated at 3.6 percent year-over-year. Despite three consecutive weeks of rate declines, purchase applications remain 18 percent below year-ago levels and refinancing is down 61 percent, signaling the housing market remains frozen by affordability constraints. Loan officers across the country report that buyers are sitting on the fence longer than in years, using higher ARMs and seeking seller concessions to make deals work. Non-QM production continues to grow, with lenders offering full non-QM suites including bank statements, 1099 income, and DSCR products to capture borrowers outside traditional guidelines. Fannie Mae reported third-quarter net income of $4.2 billion with net worth near $120 billion, while Freddie Mac posted $3.2 billion in earnings, both signaling the GSEs remain well-capitalized despite market headwinds. Optimal Blue's September data showed non-QM volume climbing 8 percent month-over-month and ARM usage reaching 14 percent of locks—the highest since 2019. The mortgage industry continues consolidating, with several mergers announced as lenders pursue scale to offset margin compression and volume decline. **Locking vs Floating** Ground-holding continues as lenders and borrowers assess whether recent rate declines signal a sustainable trend or a temporary reprieve. Technical analysis suggests 10-year yields could test 4.83 percent on the downside, but oil prices above $101 per barrel and persistent geopolitical tensions support an inflation case for higher rates. Lock activity has picked up modestly on the week's rate improvement, but borrower behavior remains hesitant—many are waiting for further evidence that affordability conditions are genuinely improving before committing. **Today's Events** October Chicago PMI and remarks from San Francisco Fed President Daly are scheduled for later today. Q3 Employment Cost Index data released this morning showed +0.8 percent growth, consistent with a resilient labor market despite higher borrowing costs. **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |

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