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HOME2023-01-22T13:43:33-07:00

“Damn, there is so much great knowledge out there. Did you know that “BOOKS” are full of smart?? No, I mean like life changing, I-wish-I-knew-that-years-ago type stuff.

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I still remember how it started for me. It started in June of 2008. After 11  years …..Click to continue

Mortgage Today (PM) - 09/30/26 {{catlist}}
September 30, 2026 READ MORE **WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 09/30/2026** Bonds sold off sharply today without a clear catalyst, pushing 10-year Treasuries to 5.29% and forcing most lenders into reprice territory by midday. PCE inflation data came in cooler than expected this morning, but that brief rally evaporated as month-end and quarter-end dynamics took over. The MBS market moved down a quarter point from early morning rate sheet times, creating genuine pain for borrowers locked in recent days. Most mortgage originators are now weighing whether to hold the line on pricing or accept additional losses on their pipelines. Broader econ strength—GDP beat, ADP jobs higher than forecast—appears to be winning the narrative over cooling inflation. The messaging to borrowers about rate direction remains murky heading into Thursday and Friday when critical employment data hits. Month-end mechanical selling, potential portfolio rebalancing, and rumors of geopolitical escalation are layered on top of genuine economic data divergence. MBS Live analysts suggest waiting for a market rally that isn't driven by heavy selling pressure before making lock/float adjustments. If Thursday brings weak jobs or wage data, mortgage rates could stage a substantial recovery; however, stronger numbers would only reinforce today's upward momentum. Risk managers should assume reprice alerts could continue through the week. The appraisal community got a six-month reprieve today when the GSEs delayed the UAD 3.6 mandate from November 2 to May 19, 2027, giving the entire mortgage ecosystem time to catch up. The mortgage industry was sleepwalking toward compliance with less than a month remaining, and most appraisers hadn't completed even one 3.6 form. Software vendors like ACI Sky Workbench and Cotality's TOTAL had unfinished development roadmaps, while many lenders were still running legacy LOS systems incompatible with the new standard. The silver lining: business volume is weak, so appraisers have time to learn workflows without handling a crisis volume surge simultaneously. Expect the industry to use this runway more wisely than the first nine months since January's production launch. Credit scoring competition intensified today when FHFA announced Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will now apply a single pricing grid for both Classic FICO and VantageScore 4.0 loans, eliminating the 20-point penalty that previously existed. Rocket Mortgage made VantageScore its default credit model starting Q4, having already moved 44.1% of August retail issuance to the alternative score after pulling 1.4 million dual reports. The competitive dynamic is creating meaningful borrower savings—UWM reports 25% of borrowers see better results with VantageScore, while Rocket found qualifying borrowers saved an average of $1,600 at closing. However, Fannie and Freddie's quiet disclosure of proprietary "Fannie Score" and "Freddie Score" signals that GSE-owned algorithms could eventually compete directly with FICO and VantageScore in the future. This three-way (or four-way) score competition reshapes origination economics and borrower eligibility outcomes. Thirty-year mortgage rates climbed to 7.30% this week, the highest level since November 2023, marking six consecutive weeks of increases. Total mortgage applications fell 6% as higher borrowing costs pushed purchase and refi applications down 4% and 9% respectively, with refis now 56% below year-ago levels. ARM adoption jumped to 10.3% of applications—the highest share since October 2025—as some borrowers scramble for rate relief in a higher-for-longer environment. Price cuts on listings nationwide hit 20.8%, up nearly 1 percentage point year-over-year, signaling seller capitulation. Rates continued climbing through the end of the month, reaching 7.58% by Tuesday. Mortgage originators face operational strain as Eleven Mortgage exited wholesale and correspondent lending after eight years, redirecting its parent company Benchmark's resources solely to retail. The broader organization saw producing workforce decline 32% over the past year, from 245 to 167 originators, reflecting industry contraction. Multiple wholesale lenders have quietly tightened capacity or shuttered divisions as loan volume remains depressed and competition for borrowers intensifies. Tech vendors are racing to prove value in a softer market, while the ICE Residential Whole Loan Evaluations service launched today to address secondary market pricing opacity. Originators should assume continued consolidation and channel rebalancing until application volume recovers significantly above current levels. **Locking vs Floating** MBS Live recommends waiting until the bond market shows genuine strength independent of panic selling before adjusting lock or float positioning. While cooler PCE data hints at potential Fed patience, stronger-than-expected GDP and ADP jobs readings suggest the inflation fight remains contested. Any meaningful mortgage rate recovery would likely depend on weak employment reports arriving Thursday or Friday; conversely, strong labor data would likely accelerate the recent upward momentum in rates. **Today's Events** ADP jobs (September): 90K versus 70K forecast, 38K previous Core PCE (month-over-month, August): 0.2% versus 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous Core PCE (year-over-year, August): 3.0% versus 3.3% forecast, 3.3% previous Core PCE Prices (quarter-over-quarter, Q2): 3.30% versus 3.6% forecast, 4.4% previous Corporate profits (Q2): 7.7% versus 8.2% forecast, 0.5% previous GDP (Q2): 2.2% versus 1.5% forecast, 2.1% previous GDP Final Sales (Q2): 2.8% versus 2.2% forecast, 1.9% previous PCE (year-over-year, August): 3.4% versus 3.7% forecast, 3.7% previous PCE prices (month-over-month, August): 0.3% versus 0.4% forecast, 0.2% previous **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.5 | 95.41 | -0.12 | | 6.0 | 98.02 | -0.16 | | 5.5 | 95.51 | -0.14 | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2yr | 4.9 | 99.719 | 0.023 | | 3yr | 5.001 | 98.275 | 0.031 | | 5yr | 5.093 | 99.596 | 0.046 | | 7yr | 5.188 | 98.906 | 0.049 | | 10yr | 5.287 | 94.909 | 0.055 | | 30yr | 5.632 | 92.698 | 0.067 | Market Data Mortgage Today (AM) - 09/30/26 {{catlist}}
September 30, 2026 READ MORE **WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 09/30/2026** Mortgage applications plummeted 6 percent in the week ending September 25, with refinancing down a staggering 56 percent year-over-year as rates climbed to three-year highs. Purchase applications declined 4 percent seasonally adjusted and 14 percent annually, signaling that borrowers are stepping back from the market entirely. The pullback reflects the brutal impact of elevated borrowing costs, which have now pushed long-term yields to levels unseen since 2002. Yesterday's 10-year Treasury closed at 5.26 percent, and the 30-year hit 5.62 percent as the bond market sold off despite weaker economic data. MBS securities lost roughly 25 basis points in the move. This morning brought a mixed inflation picture that sparked a modest intraday relief rally. The August Core PCE price index came in cooler than expected at 0.2 percent month-over-month (versus 0.3 percent forecast) and 3.0 percent year-over-year (versus 3.3 percent forecast). Personal spending rose 0.6 percent inflation-adjusted in August, marking the fastest pace in over a year, while ADP employment climbed 90,000 jobs—beating the 70,000 forecast. Q2 GDP printed at 2.2 percent, topping the 1.5 percent estimate, which suggests the economy remains resilient despite mortgage headwinds. By mid-morning, the 10-year Treasury had pulled back three basis points to 5.20 percent and UMBS securities posted modest intraday gains. Fed officials struck a cautious tone overnight, with President Williams stating there is no urgency for additional rate hikes after September's move and that policymakers should gather more information. Governor Barr emphasized recalibrating policy to balance employment and inflation risks while returning inflation to 2 percent in a timely manner. The message sent traders into bond-buying mode early in the session, though analysts warned that the relief could prove temporary. Without clear evidence of economic deterioration or a meaningful shift in the Fed's inflation outlook, dip-buying has lacked sustained conviction. The market remains technically oversold and awaiting more concrete catalysts from Wednesday's PCE data and Friday's official payrolls report. The capital markets are struggling with a fundamental disconnect: economic data shows resilience, yet the bond market keeps selling off long-dated maturities. Heavy corporate issuance is hitting the tape, with jumbo tranches scheduled for pricing today that will add supply pressure. Convexity hedging, positioning concerns, and persistent worries over federal borrowing and inflation have dominated the long end of the curve. The 2-year-to-10-year curve steepened to 37 basis points yesterday, a move that underscores yield volatility. Originators and lenders are now operating in an environment where mortgage rates have disconnected from near-term Fed policy and are instead driven by structural forces in the Treasury market. Mortgage professionals face a critical decision window in October. Lock-float recommendations from market analysts suggest waiting until bonds demonstrate a stronger desire to rally without that rally being purely a reaction to heavy selling pressure. The economic calendar remains crowded with potential volatility triggers, and borrowers who held off in September are unlikely to re-enter the market quickly at current rate levels. Portfolio lenders and warehouse lines are under pressure as refi demand evaporates and purchase applications decline. For originators, the focus must shift from volume preservation to pricing discipline and cultivating relationships with existing clients who might refinance in a lower-rate environment. **Locking vs Floating** The data backdrop supports a wait-and-see posture on rate locks. While inflation showed modest improvement this morning, the bond market's broader trajectory remains firmly upward on yield, driven by supply and structural factors beyond the Fed's near-term control. Only concrete signs of economic weakness or a meaningful repricing of inflation risk would justify an aggressive pivot to locking. Borrowers and originators should monitor Friday's employment report closely, as a significant miss to the downside could finally break the bond selloff momentum. **Today's Events** ADP Employment Change (8:15 AM): +90K vs. +70K forecast, +38K previous Core PCE (month-over-month, August): +0.2% vs. +0.3% forecast, +0.2% previous Core PCE (year-over-year, August): +3.0% vs. +3.3% forecast, +3.3% previous PCE Price Index (month-over-month, August): +0.3% vs. +0.4% forecast PCE Price Index (year-over-year, August): +3.4% vs. +3.7% forecast Q2 GDP (third estimate): +2.2% vs. +1.5% forecast, +2.1% previous Q2 Final Sales: +2.8% vs. +2.2% forecast Q2 Corporate Profits: +7.7% vs. +8.2% forecast Chicago PMI (September): Pending, 9:45 AM EDT Fed Speakers: Governor Cook (3:25 PM), Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (5:10 PM), Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (later in day) **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 4.84 | 99.83 | -0.036 | | 3 yr | 4.939 | 98.446 | -0.039 | | 5 yr | 5.025 | 99.891 | -0.025 | | 7 yr | 5.129 | 99.25 | -0.014 | | 10 yr | 5.233 | 95.316 | -0.012 | Market Data Mortgage Today (PM) - 09/29/26 {{catlist}}
September 29, 2026 READ MORE **WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 09/29/2026** Mortgage-backed securities (UMBS) experienced a volatile intraday swing today, dropping nearly half a point before recovering moderately after Federal Reserve Governor Williams signaled no urgency for additional rate hikes. The 10-year Treasury yield crested at 5.29%—touching a critical technical level not seen since 2007—before reversing course in afternoon trading. MBS prices ended the day down roughly 0.01 to 0.03 points depending on coupon, but well off their weakest levels. Markets responded sharply to Williams' dovish comments, with Fed Funds Futures rallying and the entire yield curve (except 30-year bonds) returning to positive territory by close. This volatility underscores the sensitivity of mortgage securities to Fed messaging as quarter-end trading dynamics persist. Economic data released today painted a mixed picture that provided little directional momentum until Fed commentary intervened. Case Shiller home prices rose 2.5% year-over-year (beating the 2.2% forecast), while the FHFA monthly index climbed 0.3% (above the 0.1% expectation). However, consumer confidence slumped to 81.9, well below the 89.2 forecast, and job openings fell to 7.079 million from 7.271 million previously. The weakness in confidence and employment metrics suggests underlying economic softness that could eventually support bond rallies, though today's data alone triggered only modest price responses. Lenders reported negative repricing risk approaching 0.25 points by mid-afternoon as MBS weakness mounted. The morning session proved brutal, with heavy selling between 9:30 a.m. and 10:00 a.m. that pushed MBS down over an eighth of a point despite falling oil prices offering no support. Bearish momentum combined with quarter-end portfolio adjustments (correlating with stock market weakness) appeared to be the primary driver rather than specific economic or policy catalysts. By 10:05 a.m., the 10-year yield had risen 1.1 basis points to 5.25%, and MBS losses accelerated through early afternoon. The lack of any fundamental justification for the selling—particularly with oil prices declining—suggests technical forces and repositioning dominated price action. Williams' 2:00 p.m. statement that he sees no need for urgency following September's rate hike proved to be the session's turning point, effectively halting the bleeding in fixed-income markets. His comments carried extra weight given his status among Fed speakers and represented a notably more dovish tone than recent messaging from other officials. The short end of the yield curve responded particularly well, with the 2-year yield declining 5.3 basis points, while the 10-year finished just 0.3 basis points higher at 5.236%. By day's close, MBS had recovered roughly three-eighths of a point from their lows, though many lenders remained at risk of additional negative reprices depending on their rate sheet timing. **Locking vs Floating** Originators should continue holding the lock/float stance unchanged from Monday, waiting for bonds to demonstrate genuine rally strength that is not merely a rebound from heavy selling. If upcoming economic data comes in weak and bonds recover sustainably, mortgage rates could see substantial relief; conversely, stronger data would likely add to recent upward momentum. The risk/reward at current levels remains unfavorable for aggressively floating, given the proximity to 2007 technical resistance and persistent quarter-end volatility. **Today's Events** | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | |---|---|---|---| | Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (Jul) | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | | FHFA Home Price Index m/m (Jul) | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0% | | CB Consumer Confidence (Sep) | 81.9 | 89.2 | 89.4 | | USA JOLTS Job Openings (Aug) | 7.079M | 7.23M | 7.271M | **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.5 | 95.53 | -0.04 | | 6.0 | 98.19 | -0.02 | | 5.5 | 95.65 | -0.16 | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 4.874 | 99.766 | -0.053 | | 3 yr | 4.978 | 98.34 | -0.031 | | 5 yr | 5.05 | 99.781 | -0.019 | | 7 yr | 5.142 | 99.172 | -0.007 | | 10 yr | 5.245 | 95.226 | 0.011 | | 30 yr | 5.569 | 93.566 | 0.02 | Market Data LATEST ARTICLES

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