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HOME2023-01-22T13:43:33-07:00

“Damn, there is so much great knowledge out there. Did you know that “BOOKS” are full of smart?? No, I mean like life changing, I-wish-I-knew-that-years-ago type stuff.

I know that I was waaaayyy late to the game figuring it out. And I know that a lot of you are too busy to read as much as you ‘should’. And that is why you need me.

I still remember how it started for me. It started in June of 2008. After 11  years …..Click to continue

Mortgage Today (PM) - 11/11/26 {{catlist}}
November 11, 2026 READ MORE **WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 11/11/2026** Hotter CPI slammed bonds Tuesday, delivering the biggest selloff since September and knocking UMBS prices sharply lower while pushing yields higher. UMBS 6.0 fell roughly 5/8ths and the 10-year Treasury jumped about 10 bps to near 4.98%. There weren’t any “yeah, but” nuances in the report—core ran hot and Fed-dated pricing shifted toward more tightening risk. Shorter maturities led the weakness, but the damage reached the long end and mortgages. With markets closed today for Veterans Day, Thursday becomes the first test of whether rates can stabilize. The selloff interrupts a two‑week rally that had been fueled by tech/AI credit jitters and falling oil, which drove safe‑haven bids into Treasuries and MBS. Earlier this week, “neocloud” weakness lined up well with bond gains, helping nudge rates to the best levels in a month. Even so, bonds had already been reluctant to extend the rally as stocks bounced and oil wobbled. CPI now puts the burden back on data and tech sentiment to keep rates improving. Without fresh fuel, the friendly trend is at risk. Ginnie Mae performance echoed conventionals, with GNMA 6.0 down about 0.59 on CPI day after catching a bid during last week’s equity slide. Spreads versus Treasuries have been choppy as mortgage convexity and rate‑lock flows amplify swings. The good news: despite CPI, mortgages didn’t underperform disastrously versus the long end. The bad news: renewed volatility can widen spreads and dent primary rate improvements. Watch how MBS track the 10‑year on the next risk‑off day. Technically, the 10‑year has been oscillating between support near 4.82–4.88 and resistance at 4.93–5.00–5.07. Tuesday’s break back above 4.93 and toward 5.00 argues for caution until yields convincingly reenter the lower zone. Near‑term direction likely hinges on whether tech jitters re‑intensify and oil remains subdued. A decisive move back below 4.93 would reopen the door to October’s gains. A sustained hold above 5.00 would keep sellers in control. On the origination front, margins and volume remain tight, pushing lenders to compete on pricing and process. UWM swung to a profit with cost cuts and MSR tactics, and it’s dangling a 40 bps incentive tied to broker tech adoption, while Rocket’s Quick Counter aims to help brokers salvage refis against rival offers. Retention is the pressure point: ICE says servicers kept only 27% of refi borrowers, with cash‑outs driving most runoff. Translation: cash‑out equity taps are up for grabs if you get there first. Demand remains soft even after a modest rate pullback before CPI. MBA reported applications slipping again, and Zillow says typical payments are up 12.8% year over year despite flat home prices, keeping affordability strained. Inventory is improving and leverage is shifting toward buyers, but not enough to spark a sales rebound yet. ARMs are inching higher as payment relief becomes paramount, and VA remains an underused channel with meaningful room for growth. Expect “price versus payment” to dominate borrower decisions into year‑end. **Locking vs Floating** The CPI surprise puts the recent rally on notice, with rates vulnerable if yields hold above 4.93–5.00% on the 10‑year. Risk‑tolerant borrowers can float only if tech/AI credit jitters re‑accelerate or data cools; otherwise, use intraday strength to lock. Holiday closures can exaggerate swings, so be mindful of headline‑driven gaps. For tactical triggers, treat 4.93% and 5.00% as lock thresholds and 4.88%/4.82% as floors that would need reclaiming to restore momentum. Until new, bond‑friendly catalysts appear, the bias tilts defensive. Subscribe free for daily briefs at WellThatMakesSense.com.

Market Data Mortgage Today (AM) - 11/11/26 {{catlist}}
November 11, 2026 READ MORE **WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 11/11/2026** Bonds are catching their breath after Tuesday’s hotter CPI (+0.4% headline, +0.3% core) revived rate-hike odds and pushed the 10-year back toward 5.00%. UMBS prices slipped on the print, with production coupons lagging Treasuries as volatility picked up and liquidity thinned into the holiday. With the bond market closed today for Veterans Day, lenders should expect limited or static rate sheets until trading reopens. Near term, auction supply and Friday’s PPI will steer the next leg. Bigger picture, last week’s five-week rally bent but didn’t fully break. Ginnie Mae remains the growth engine: it’s 42% of agency issuance year-to-date and reached 47% in October as FHA/VA outpaced conventional. That tilt matters for pipelines and servicing, given slower seasonals, slightly higher delinquency sensitivity, and cash-flow timing. VA volume deserves a nod today: zero-down remains a powerful tool, even as affordability tightens. Prepay speeds softened again in October, reducing convexity risk but stretching MSR cash flows. Expect investors to keep favoring specified pools with cleaner VA/FHA attributes. The 10-year’s round-trip near 5.00% has been fueled by hawkish Fedspeak (Waller opened the door to a December move), hotter CPI, and soft auction demand. Real yields remain elevated, keeping mortgage spreads sticky even when Treasuries rally. Oil’s retreat helped briefly, but the inflation trend still rules the tape. Until core inflation convincingly cools, the market will fade rallies on strong data and thin liquidity days. Translation: volatility remains a feature, not a bug. Origination mix keeps shifting to where execution lives. ARM share climbed to 17%—the highest since 2019—as buyers trade rate for payment relief and future refinance optionality. HELOCs remain ascendant on record tappable equity, giving lenders a durable recapture lane while first-lien refi incentives stay scarce. Non-QM grows as product fit, but execution discipline is paramount; bid/ask and pool sale risk can erase thin gains. Credit-score modernization is here too: VantageScore 4.0 vs. FICO 10T choices carry pricing, hedging, and investor-acceptance implications. Housing demand remains rate sensitive: contract signings fell to a record-low October pace, even as inventory improved and asking prices edged down. Competitive pressures are shifting to cash-to-close, not just rate. That’s why programs like Zillow’s FHA down-payment assistance (forgiving second) matter—they change the math on borrower eligibility and lender win rates. Expect more lenders to pair buydowns, DPA, and ARMs to keep purchases moving through year-end. Execution and education will separate winners. Playbook for today: with markets closed, focus on file quality, pricing exceptions discipline, and Monday’s pipeline posture. For VA and FHA pipelines, recheck AUS after CPI and confirm MI/DPA math still appraises cleanly. For HELOCs, compress cycle time—speed is winning share. And prep talking points now for Friday’s PPI and next week’s refunding supply, when rate sheets will need quick lock decisions. **Locking vs Floating** Post-CPI, the path of least resistance is choppy and upward for yields, with rallies prone to fade on strong data or supply. If recent improvements meet borrower goals or price exceptions are stacking, bias to lock on strength rather than gambling into PPI and next week’s auctions. Floating only makes sense with tight triggers, clear milestones, and minimal fallout risk. Production coupons are underperforming on volatility—assume headline sensitivity remains high. In short: protect wins; don’t chase dimes into data. **Today's Events** - Veterans Day: U.S. bond markets closed; rates likely static until trading reopens - No major economic releases scheduled; next key data is Friday’s PPI and University of Michigan Sentiment Subscribe free at WellThatMakesSense.com to get this in your inbox each morning.

Market Data Mortgage Today (PM) - 11/10/26 {{catlist}}
November 10, 2026 READ MORE **WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 11/10/2026** Hotter CPI ended the early‑November bond rally, sending mortgage bonds and rates sharply the wrong way. Traders shed the “tech-jitters” safe‑haven trade and repriced for more Fed restraint. The move resets near‑term momentum and puts the recent downtrend in rates at risk. Volatility is elevated into the mid‑week holiday. Expect choppy price action around liquidity pockets. UMBS led the downturn as front‑end Treasury yields surged on the inflation surprise. By the close, 30‑year UMBS 6.0 fell 62 ticks to 99.43, while the 10‑year Treasury yield jumped roughly 10 bps to 4.98 percent. Losses were broad across coupons and GNMA stacks, with Ginnie 6.0 down 59 ticks. Fed‑funds futures nudged higher for December hike odds, reflecting the stickier inflation profile. Bid/ask and liquidity widened intraday before stabilizing late. Context matters: last week’s rally rested on AI/tech credit fears and slumping oil, not on softer inflation. With that cover fading today, the market refocused on the Fed’s inflation mandate. A mid‑week holiday can distort flows, so follow‑through may be uneven. A durable trend reversal likely needs either renewed tech stress or unequivocally softer inflation data. Until then, respect the range and trade defensively. On the origination front, modest rate relief into early November didn’t lift activity much. MBA data showed purchase apps slipping again, while Mortgage News Daily’s rate index hovered in the low‑7s (about 7.30–7.37 percent). Adjustable‑rate share pushed to a yearly high as borrowers hunt payment relief. Turn times and pricing discipline matter more than ever with secondary spreads still sensitive to volatility. Expect intraday reprice risk to stay lively. Servicing strategy remains pivotal as equity‑driven refis dominate what little refi volume exists. ICE estimates homeowners hold a record $17.5 trillion in tappable equity, yet servicers retained only 27 percent of refinancing borrowers last quarter. Cash‑out transactions are the main runoff driver. Lenders with strong database monitoring, HELOC/cash‑out options, and timely outreach will win more of that business. Housing remains a tale of leverage, not lift. Inventory has improved and buyers are negotiating more, but pending sales and contract signings continue to lag. Payments rose ~13 percent year‑over‑year even with largely flat prices, keeping affordability strained. For originators, that favors precise structuring: concessions, buydowns, and ARMs tailored to borrower cash‑flow constraints. **Locking vs Floating** Today’s CPI upside puts the recent rate rally at risk, so near‑term closings should favor locking on morning strength and avoiding late‑day whipsaws. Tactical floaters need tight triggers (e.g., 10‑year holding below 4.93–5.00 percent) and a willingness to lock quickly on adverse moves. A sustained leg lower in rates likely requires fresh downside surprises in inflation or renewed tech/AI credit stress. Expect elevated intraday volatility around the mid‑week holiday and data headlines; keep pipeline hedges snug and be selective with premium pricing. **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |

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